AGP Executive Report

Paraguay Banking Crisis: Senators impeached Santiago Peña over Ueno Bank’s collapse, which froze accounts for about 2.9 million customers. Vice-President Pedro Alliana has taken office and promised to compensate depositors; initial repayments have begun. Crypto Enforcement: FinCEN ordered US financial institutions to stop transfers to and from MEXC, alleging the exchange handled $16.7 billion in potentially illicit transactions. The ban takes effect after publication in the Federal Register. Bank Risk: Moody’s flagged rising bad loans, capital quality, cyber threats and geopolitical uncertainty as risks for Greek banks, though it said the sector remains resilient. AI Oversight: The OCC has set new expectations for banks using artificial intelligence, as regulators focus on controls around the technology. Rates and Markets: Strong US jobs data lifted the dollar and revived expectations of a Federal Reserve rate increase in December.

Paraguay Banking Crisis: President Santiago Peña resigned as the Ueno Bank scandal deepened. The central bank took control of the lender after it breached solvency rules, freezing accounts for about three million customers; lawmakers rejected Peña’s request to delay his impeachment hearing. Central Banks: Klaas Knot and Pablo Hernández de Cos are candidates to succeed Christine Lagarde at the ECB, which faces inflation pressures and market stress. Cybersecurity: Authorities are warning banks and financial firms about AI-assisted attacks, while India’s central bank has called for security audits amid rising threats. Markets and Rates: A tech selloff tied to concerns about the AI boom has weakened bets on further Fed and ECB rate hikes, as officials weigh the risk of slower growth. Banking and Investment: Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank backed HDFC Capital’s affordable and mid-income housing fund in India. Revolut completed fundraising at a $115 billion valuation, while Singapore’s OCBC raised its 2026 outlook after a quarterly profit beat.

Paraguay Crisis: President Santiago Peña resigned as regulators moved to wind down Ueno Bank, whose capital shortfall left millions of customers unable to access accounts. Authorities are investigating alleged excessive lending to shareholder-linked companies; Peña has faced scrutiny over past ties to the group. Cybersecurity: French lender Crédit Mutuel Arkéa says attackers used an external service provider to make about €100 million in fraudulent transfers; customer accounts were not affected. Nepal is launching a 24-hour centre to help freeze funds and coordinate responses to online financial scams. Regulation: Nigeria’s January 2027 deadline for local storage of critical payment data is raising cost and infrastructure concerns for banks and fintechs. India’s central bank has also issued new cyber-resilience rules for non-bank payment operators. Bank Financing: A nine-bank syndicate is backing $1.2 billion in financing for Tanzania’s railway, supported by an $800 million African Development Bank guarantee. Deutsche Bank and Société Générale co-arranged the facility.

Cybersecurity: Crédit Mutuel Arkéa says attackers used an account to move about €100 million through transfers to other banks, potentially converting the funds to cryptocurrency. Customer accounts were not affected, but some transfers were paused. Paraguay Crisis: President Santiago Peña resigned amid fallout from the central bank’s intervention at digital lender Ueno, which left millions of customers unable to access accounts and sparked an impeachment push. Rates: The Bank of England raised its key rate to 4% for the first time since 2023, warning inflation could approach 5%; mortgage costs are already rising. AI Risks: Indian authorities warned banks and fintechs of AI-driven attacks and payment fraud, as US regulators set out how examiners will assess banks’ AI use. Digital Euro: Nexi and Deutsche Telekom were chosen to provide network connectivity for the European Central Bank’s digital euro pilot.

Paraguay Crisis: Digital lender Ueno Bank has entered resolution after its capital fell below the legal minimum, leaving accounts frozen for about 2.8 million customers and triggering protests and an impeachment push against President Santiago Peña. Cybersecurity: India’s I4C warned banks, lenders and fintechs that AI-assisted attacks are exploiting payment systems and APIs to move money rapidly; it called for stronger controls and six-hour incident reporting. In the US, the OCC issued its first guidance for examiners reviewing banks’ AI use. Rates and Markets: Australian lenders including Westpac, CBA and ING will raise variable mortgage rates by 0.25% from November 13. In Malaysia, bank shares led gains ahead of the central bank’s rate decision. Banking Moves: India’s competition regulator cleared Kotak Mahindra Bank’s acquisition of Deutsche Bank’s retail and private banking businesses. Credit Outlook: Moody’s says Greek banks’ profitability, liquidity and capital provide solid buffers, though rising bad loans and cyber risks remain concerns.

Cybersecurity: France’s Crédit Mutuel Arkéa said hackers triggered fraudulent transactions; the bank is assessing losses, but customer funds are safe and operations are resuming. U.S. Bank Oversight: Democrats’ control of Congress puts Senator Elizabeth Warren in line to lead the Senate Banking Committee, raising the prospect of tougher scrutiny of banks and financial firms. Banking Deals: India’s competition regulator approved Kotak Mahindra Bank’s purchase of Deutsche Bank’s retail business in the country. Lending Costs: Nigerian banks raised rates in eight of 11 sectors despite 450 basis points of central bank cuts, keeping credit expensive for businesses. Bank Technology: FIS reported growth in banking solutions but lowered its 2026 outlook, citing implementation delays and consolidation among large-bank clients; its CFO is also leaving. Sri Lanka Ratings: Fitch upgraded three bank-backed finance companies, citing stronger capacity among their parent banks to support them.

Rates and Lending: Australia’s central bank raised its cash rate to 4.85%, an 18-year high, prompting major banks to lift variable mortgage rates by 0.25 percentage points. In Kenya, the Treasury urged banks to pass on recent benchmark-rate cuts to borrowers. Bank Deals: Intesa Sanpaolo reportedly plans a $37 billion buyout of Monte dei Paschi, while India’s CCI approved Kotak Mahindra’s purchase of Deutsche Bank’s retail banking business. Regulation and Risk: Bank of America’s $1.2 billion anti-money-laundering settlement has renewed scrutiny of transaction-monitoring systems and compliance oversight. China’s regulator reportedly told banks to pause IPOs as markets falter, while Hong Kong’s regulator is moving to require identity credentials for AI agents. Digital Banking: New Zealand approved Revolut’s banking licence, paving the way for savings accounts and credit cards. Leadership: MUFG EMEA named Sandeep Kohli regional head of markets sales and trading, subject to regulatory approval.

China Markets: Regulators have reportedly told investment banks to pause IPOs and large shareholder sales until markets recover, after the CSI 300’s worst month in more than a decade. Cybersecurity: Taiwan’s Bank SinoPac took a new app offline after a software glitch triggered 427 unauthorized transfers from 419 customers; the bank says it has reimbursed them. Bank of Baroda, responding to a separate cyber breach, plans to raise technology and security spending above its longtime 10% cap on operating profit. AI Oversight: Hong Kong’s regulator launched an initiative to address risks from AI agents making financial transactions, as banks explore their use. Wall Street: A planned Anthropic IPO could lift fourth-quarter earnings by about 0.8% on average for the five largest banks involved, with Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup set for the biggest gains. India’s Banking Shake-up: Fairfax’s proposed $5.5 billion takeover of IDBI Bank faces a second day of employee strikes and opposition over the sale and valuation. Clean-Energy Lending: Neoen secured about $1.26 billion from 13 lenders, including HSBC, Bank of America and Société Générale, to finance a 1.2 GW Australian renewables portfolio.

AI and Jobs: Barclays says AI is driving efficiency gains as it plans to cut about 5,000 roles this year, a sign of mounting pressure on bank workforces. New Zealand Banking: Revolut has won a local banking licence, becoming the country’s 27th registered bank and its first fintech bank. Financial Resilience: Cyprus’s central bank will require lenders to hold a 1% systemic-risk buffer from December 31 to strengthen their ability to absorb shocks. Cybersecurity: Hong Kong’s monetary authority and HKUST launched a toolkit to help banks prepare for post-quantum cyber threats.

Digital Banking: Standard Chartered has launched 24/7 tokenized-deposit transfers for corporate clients in Hong Kong, using an HKMA pilot to settle payments without relying on crypto. African Expansion: FirstRand, Standard Bank, Nedbank and other regional lenders are eyeing Kenyan acquisitions or adding capital, encouraged by strong returns and a higher minimum-capital requirement. Credit Conditions: Bangladesh’s private-sector credit growth sank to 4.17% in September, a historic low, as businesses delayed investment and banks grew cautious. In Pakistan, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif urged lenders to speed loans to small businesses, farmers and homebuyers. Regulation and Security: India has formed a panel to recommend banking reforms, while its central bank is tightening cybersecurity checks amid rising attacks. Albanian police also warned customers about fake bank texts designed to steal account details. Bank Results: China’s major banks posted their fastest quarterly profit growth in years as margins stabilized. Consolidation: Mechanics & Farmers Bank and South Carolina’s Optus Bank agreed to merge, creating a roughly $1.3 billion institution that would be the largest Black-owned bank in the US, subject to regulatory approval.

Bank earnings: Westpac New Zealand’s profit fell 9% to NZ$1.09 billion as mortgage competition squeezed margins, while China’s largest banks reported their fastest quarterly profit growth in years as margins stabilised. Credit conditions: Eurozone banks tightened business and consumer lending, with demand for business and housing loans falling. China’s central bank also shifted its main policy-rate anchor to overnight lending, a move analysts say should ease funding conditions. AI and banking: HSBC plans to open an AI and emerging-technology institute in Hong Kong in early 2027, adding to its Singapore investment as banks expand AI use. Cyber risk: Attacks on banks are raising concerns for insurers, while India’s Supreme Court has said banks may have to compensate digital-fraud victims if they fail due diligence; the RBI is tightening cybersecurity checks. Regulatory scrutiny: Australia’s corporate regulator is making targeted inquiries into lead managers of the cancelled Firmus IPO, including Bank of America and JPMorgan. Banking reform: India has formed a panel to review banking rules, capital needs and digital innovation.

Digital Banking: SoftBank-backed OPay withdrew its planned $304 million US IPO after an undisclosed foreign regulatory inquiry, saying the probe would not affect its operations. Syria’s Banking Links: Syria’s central bank met European and regional lenders to pursue correspondent banking, trade finance and international payment links, while seeking to strengthen anti-money-laundering safeguards. AI and Markets: JPMorgan sees a rare global profit cycle, but warns that rising funding costs and debt tied to AI investment could pose risks. UK Banks: Lloyds criticized the government’s bank-tax increase, while Lloyds and Halifax plan to close 17 branches this month, citing customers’ shift to digital services. India’s Banking Overhaul: The government has set up a panel to recommend sector reforms, as the RBI tightens cyber checks on banks. The Supreme Court has also said banks may need to compensate digital-fraud victims when inadequate due diligence is established. Credit Risk: Banks are owed $349 billion by private credit funds, raising concerns about whether those funds are collecting enough cash from borrowers.

India’s Banking Reset: New Delhi has formed a panel led by former vigilance chief Suresh Patel to recommend reforms on regulation, capital and digital innovation. The RBI is also demanding stronger cyber controls and details on banks’ AI risks as attacks rise. Credit and Funding: Indian bank credit grew 18.2% year over year to ₹227.4 lakh crore by October 15, outpacing deposits and pushing the loan-to-deposit ratio to 81.6%. Digital Payments: Mastercard is targeting Ethiopia, where only one adult in five transacts digitally; limited card acceptance and a shortage of payment terminals outside Addis Ababa remain hurdles. China’s Banks: Listed lenders reported 7.8% revenue growth and 3.8% higher net profit through September, aided by lower funding costs and investment gains. ICBC’s third-quarter profit rose 10%. Fraud Liability: India’s Supreme Court said banks should compensate digital-fraud victims when they fail due diligence, sharpening pressure on customer protections. Europe’s Central Bank: Christine Lagarde is set to leave the ECB early, opening a contest for one of the world’s most influential banking posts.

India’s Banking Overhaul: New Delhi formed a panel led by former vigilance chief Suresh Patel to review regulation, capital needs and digital innovation, with a six-month reform agenda. Cybersecurity: The RBI is tightening checks on banks amid rising attacks and seeking details on AI-related risks. Banking Stability: Serbia revoked Alta Bank’s license as crowds gathered outside branches; Bangladesh signed a $450 million World Bank deal to strengthen supervision and support banking reforms. Credit Outlook: Philippine banks expect stronger loan demand in the fourth quarter, with most planning to keep lending standards steady. Earnings: Lloyds reported £4.8 billion in nine-month statutory profit, but shares fell as investors focused on a weaker outlook for interest income growth in 2027. Market Infrastructure: The DTCC launched a tokenized-securities service backed by 20 banks, including JPMorgan and Citi.

India’s Banking Overhaul: A six-month government panel chaired by former vigilance commissioner Suresh N. Patel will review banking rules, capital needs and digital innovation, and recommend reforms to build globally competitive lenders. Cybersecurity: The RBI is pressing banks to tighten defences, test connections with fintechs for vulnerabilities and report how they are managing AI-related risks. Fraud Liability: India’s Supreme Court says banks may have to compensate victims of digital fraud when a failure in due diligence is established. Open Banking: Pakistan’s central bank has proposed rules for secure, consent-based data sharing and third-party payment services, inviting public feedback. Credit and Profits: Philippine bank loans expanded as the sector’s bad-loan ratio eased to 3.27% in September; China’s ICBC reported a 10% rise in third-quarter profit. Digital Competition: AI agents and stablecoin rewards are testing banks’ hold on customer deposits, as lenders weigh access to accounts against fraud and security risks.

Cybersecurity: India’s RBI is demanding proof that banks meet cyber rules and can manage AI-related threats, while Bank of America warns customers not to give banking credentials to AI agents. Crypto Shock: Binance has pledged more than $6.34 billion to cover losses after a reported $6.3 billion hack; industry partners have frozen about $3 billion in linked assets. Fraud Liability: India’s Supreme Court says banks may have to compensate victims of digital fraud when inadequate due diligence contributed to losses. Credit Outlook: Philippine banks expect lending standards and loan demand to stay broadly steady in Q4, with fewer lenders anticipating tighter terms. China Lending: Authorities are urging banks to expand financing for AI and other asset-light firms, even as lenders face a shortage of attractive loan opportunities. Bank Results: China’s ICBC reported a 10% rise in third-quarter profit, while NatWest’s profit growth lagged major UK rivals. IDBI Sale: India’s proposed divestment has sparked a political clash, with the finance minister defending the sale and opposition leader Rahul Gandhi arguing public banks should remain nation-building tools.