AGP Executive Report

Banking Disruption Averted (India): India’s planned three-day nationwide bank strike (Sept 28–30) was deferred after late-night talks between the Indian Banks’ Association (IBA) and the United Forum of Bank Unions (UFBU), with a high-level committee set up to review the demand for a five-day banking week and the issue of declaring remaining Saturdays as holidays; unions also flagged discussions on performance-linked incentives (PLI) for Scale IV and above officers, while banks are expected to operate normally from Monday. Regulation Watch (EU): The European Banking Authority (EBA) issued new guidelines for managing third-party arrangements supporting critical functions, covering the full lifecycle and adding a two-year transition period. Market Pulse (Australia): Australia’s ASX 200 rebounded after hitting June lows, with major banks leading gains. Wealth & Deals (Switzerland/Global): UBS shares jumped on merger speculation involving foreign rivals, following new Swiss capital rules for foreign subsidiaries. Banking Stocks (India): Citi flagged how FCNR(B) inflows could distort metrics and affect net interest margin modeling for banks including Axis, YES, ICICI and HDFC. Payments & Tech: UK banks completed first live transactions using tokenised deposits, while HSBC is pushing deeper into India’s affluent segment via wealth and transaction banking.

Bank Strike Watch (India): Public sector banks and regional rural banks stayed open on Sunday ahead of UFBU’s three-day nationwide strike starting Monday (Sept 28–30), with the Finance Ministry citing RBI approval for branches, ATMs and currency chests to keep operating and urging customers to complete key transactions in advance. Monetary Policy (India): Economists expect the RBI to raise the repo rate by 25 bps in the Oct 5–7 MPC meeting, citing sticky inflation pressures from higher oil prices and broadening food and core inflation. Health Insurance (India): After GST on individual health premiums was cut to zero, Star Health said its retail policy base rose 11% and average cover on fresh policies increased to Rs 13.7 lakh. Crypto Markets: Binance listed Hyperliquid’s HYPE for global spot trading, while Meta’s Muse AI helped lift its stock toward a US$2 trillion valuation milestone. Geopolitics & Finance (US-Iran): The US Treasury said it is sending teams worldwide to push economic isolation of Iran, highlighting new curbs affecting Iranian airlines and banks.

Banking Strike Watch (India): Public sector banks and regional rural banks will open on Sunday, Sept. 27, ahead of a UFBU three-day strike from Sept. 28–30, while private banks are not covered—co-op banks also say they won’t join the strike, so deposits/withdrawals/remittances should keep running. Crypto & Payments Risk: Tether says its EQIBank exposure is under 0.034% after U.S. asset seizures tied to EQIBank’s payment processor; separately, Bitget raised its confirmed breach total to about $387.5M and outlined a staged withdrawal restart. Central Banking Tech Push: The ECB launched Pontes to connect its payments system to blockchain-based euro settlement, onboarding banks including Deutsche Bank and Santander. AI Governance in Finance: Fed’s Waller questioned whether AI is “too big to fail,” urging regulators to assess systemic risk before granting blanket protections. Fraud Using AI (Europe): Italy’s Fideuram reported a €95M AI-enabled impersonation scam, with €59M frozen and €36M still traced. Alternative Investing Trend: JPMorgan’s Dimon warned private credit could trigger the next crisis as retail interest in alternatives—along with sports betting as “investment”—keeps rising.

Tokenized Deposits in the UK: Major UK banks including Barclays, HSBC UK, Lloyds, Monzo, Nationwide, NatWest and Santander completed the first live customer transactions using tokenized sterling deposits on shared infrastructure, testing P2P transfers and remortgages while keeping the legal protections of normal bank money. AI vs Banking Margins: Wall Street is watching how AI agents could make customers less “idle” with cash, pressuring a key bank profit source as Meta’s Muse sparks fresh disruption fears. Commercial Real Estate Stress: The CRE “paper loss” phase is turning into realized losses as office loan maturities hit and lenders refuse extensions, with delinquency rising in CMBS. Banking Disruption & Regulation: Dutch banks are set to take back more control of employee disciplinary rules as a foundation winds down, while regulators and central banks keep pushing governance, resilience and tighter risk management. UK Challenger M&A Watch: Monzo is reportedly in “serious” talks to be sold, potentially to Nubank, raising questions for customers if ownership and features change. Fraud Alerts: GoTyme Bank warned South Africans about a fake “cheap flights” scam that uses social ads and WhatsApp to push malware and steal banking details.

UK Budget Tax Talk: A poll-backed push is growing for a windfall tax on banks and an extension of the mansion tax to homes worth £1.5m, as Chancellor John Healey faces pressure to balance the books amid energy-cost risks. UK Local Housing Pressure: A Bishop Auckland MP says “land banking” is leaving prominent buildings empty and is urging tougher tools like compulsory purchase orders to bring sites back into use. Germany Crypto Tax Shock: Circle’s Patrick Hansen warns Germany’s proposed 50% crypto tax base could hit retail investors hardest, especially those unable to document acquisition costs cleanly. India Bank Strike Fallout: RBI unions back a nationwide bank strike from Sept 28–30 over a 5-day work week and changes to the PLI scheme, while India’s finance ministry denies any commitment on the 5-day plan. RBI on Bank Funding Metrics: The RBI Bulletin says a high credit-to-deposit ratio alone may not signal funding vulnerability, since deposits can be created alongside lending under the modern monetary system. Tokenized Deposits Momentum: IBM is testing SWIFT-linked tokenized deposits via an ISO 20022 adapter, and The Clearing House selected Quant for interoperability in its On-Chain Money initiative. Crypto Policy Turnover: SEC commissioner Hester Peirce (“Crypto Mom”) submitted her resignation, setting her departure for Oct 2.

Banking Outage Watch: Santander’s online banking app and ATMs went down for thousands of UK customers, with the website later returning while users reported login and payment issues; the bank said it’s “very sorry” and working to restore services. Digital Banking & Security: The IRS replaced IRS2go with a new official IRS mobile app, adding secure sign-in and self-service features like refunds, balances, payments, notices, transcripts, and identity protection PIN access. AI Governance in Finance: A new warning on agentic AI: enterprises are giving AI systems permission to act, but monitoring gaps are leaving some agents unobserved—raising the risk of unauthorized actions and making “stop it” controls a must. Crypto Meets Traditional Markets: Aave launched an equities collateral hub on Base, letting users pledge tokenized US tech stocks to borrow USDC, while crypto exchanges push single-stock perpetuals further into US regulation. Policy & Payments Pressure (India): Banks advised customers to complete essential transactions ahead of a three-day strike, while traders denied a “No UPI Day” call tied to MDR changes. Macro Backdrop: Eurozone corporate lending growth slowed as borrowing costs bite, and markets weighed higher-for-longer central bank stances amid oil and yield volatility.

AI & Markets: JPMorgan lifted its Meta price target after the launch of Meta’s Muse agent, betting it could become the next mass consumer AI app as it can take actions like booking and form-filling. EU Supervision: ESMA will make AI and tokenization a supervisory priority from 2027, pushing regulators to focus on how firms use these tools in core services with investor safeguards. Crypto & Rates: Bitcoin slid toward the low $83,000s as U.S. Treasury yields hit fresh highs since 2007, with traders pricing further Fed tightening into 2027. Stablecoin Push: The Trump administration is weighing a global stablecoin plan to strengthen the dollar’s role, while policymakers warn dollar-pegged stablecoins could strain emerging markets and bypass traditional banking oversight. Tokenized Deposits: UK banks completed interbank transfers using tokenized deposits, and the Treasury highlighted real-world settlement benefits. Digital Banking (Bangladesh): Bangladesh Bank gave initial approval to five digital bank applicants, including bKash, Banglalink and Robi Axiata. Banking Ops (India): India’s government says banks will monitor merchants to ensure UPI MDR isn’t passed to consumers, with IBA set to manage the framework. Tokenized Assets Outlook: Deutsche Bank expects tokenised financial assets to reach $3–$4T by 2035, with “market plumbing” the next growth battleground.

Tokenised deposits go live in the UK: Lloyds, NatWest and Barclays completed the first interbank transfers using tokenised deposits under UK Finance’s Great British Tokenised Deposit project, alongside remortgage and customer-to-customer “marketplace” payment tests involving HSBC, Monzo, Nationwide and Santander—aimed at faster, fraud-resistant settlement that can run alongside stablecoins. RBI drains surplus liquidity: India’s central bank absorbed Rs 75,026 crore via an overnight VRRR auction at a 5.24% cut-off/weighted average, as surplus liquidity stays elevated and OMO sales continue to manage rupee conditions. Tokenised payments get operational plumbing: ACI Worldwide extended ACI Connetic to route Swift’s blockchain ledger transactions, letting banks manage tokenised deposit payments inside existing payment controls and reconciliation workflows. AI governance meets mainframes: Rocket Software expanded its EVA agentic AI for bank mainframes and added PlanGuard, a security checkpoint to keep AI actions within approved, auditable boundaries. Cyber risk in banking systems: Reuters reported FBIJobs.gov recruitment data may have been accessed by hackers, raising concerns about sensitive identity and role-linked information. Banking operations under stress: Australia’s NAB faced a widespread digital outage hitting internet banking, the mobile app and phone lines before most services returned, spotlighting resilience. India strike logistics: India’s finance ministry said public sector banks and RRBs will stay open on Sunday Sept 27 ahead of a UFBU three-day strike starting Sept 28.

Central Banking Cooperation: Georgia’s National Bank and Hungary’s central bank signed an MoU to expand ties on monetary policy, reserves, payments, financial services and supervision. AI Reskilling Push: Verizon earmarked $70m for “Verizon AI Skills for America,” offering free AI training via a portal with IBM, Google, Microsoft, Anthropic, Coursera and OpenAI. EU Financial Stability Warning: Europe’s regulators warned EU governments that heavy reliance on non-EU banking, funds, insurers and tech infrastructure could amplify shocks and cyber risks. Rent Pressure in the US: Urban Institute data shows middle-income renters’ rent stress jumped sharply in 2025, adding to affordability strain. Banking Disruption Risk: India’s UFBU refused to defer a 3-day bank strike starting Sept. 28, with banks set to remain open on Sunday. Credit & Capital Moves (India): Multiple rating actions and funding updates hit markets, including ICRA reaffirmations/upgrades and Muthoot Capital Services’ ₹150 crore NCD plan. Corporate Deals & Payments Tech: Royal Caribbean agreed a major JV deal with Sandals, while Qualcomm moved to buy PickNik to expand open robotics software.

Sanctions Evasion Probe: The FT reports Kremlin-linked fintech A7 routed $6.9bn through global banks using shell companies and forged invoices, raising fresh scrutiny of how intermediaries handle sanctions risk. Retail Banking Safety: An HSBC customer trial in the UK heard claims a bank manager faced a toy gun threat during an aggressive branch confrontation, spotlighting staff security and customer conduct controls. Savers & Rates: A New Zealand-focused piece flags term-deposit rates slipping below US Treasury yields, leaving savers with a shrinking premium and raising questions about whether it returns. Housing & Rent Reality: Another NZ analysis argues “rent is dead money” is misleading as owner costs (rates, insurance, maintenance, and capital) keep rising. Sovereign Wealth Spotlight: New Zealand Super Fund CEO says the fund “punches above its weight” internationally, citing strong returns and influence from investment performance. Banking Disruption Watch: India’s PSU banks face possible multi-day closures from Sept 26 amid union action, with advisories urging customers to complete key transactions early. Digital Money Rails: Canada’s Big Six banks plan tokenized deposit initiatives, while regulators and central banks continue debating stablecoin deposit rules and digital-currency frameworks. AI in Banking: Multiple reports warn banks about fraud and privacy risks as AI shopping agents spread, while major banks explore agentic commerce safeguards. Central Bank Cash Ops: South Korea’s BOK supplied 3.65tn won in fresh banknotes for Chuseok to meet holiday demand.

Digital Wallets & Community Banking: CPI teamed with Bankjoy to let community banks and credit unions push debit/credit cards into customers’ digital wallets from the bank app, aiming to lift activation and use. P2P Payments: Moov launched Moov Money, a debit-card-based P2P service built with Visa and Mastercard that lets recipients get paid without downloading a new app. Stablecoins & Cross-Border FX: Payward-backed Reap is betting on non-USD stablecoins for 24/7 cross-border settlement, starting with peso tokens, and tying settlement into cards, payouts and compliance. Regulation & Crypto Transparency: NatWest, Bank of America and peers proposed voluntary rules for “agentic commerce” so consumers know when an AI agent is involved, who it represents, and how it can influence choices. Central Banking Openness: China’s central bank pledged further financial opening, including better cross-border payments and wider renminbi use. Banking Operations: India’s bank unions pressed ahead with a 3-day strike starting Sept. 28 over a 5-day week demand, with advisories urging customers to complete key tasks early. Market Backdrop: Oil slid below $100 as Iran talks hopes grew, while AI optimism lifted tech stocks. Banking Supervision: India’s RBI reported scheduled commercial banks’ supervisory data quality score rising to 93.3 in June. M&A in Credit Unions (Canada): Tru Cooperative Bank and Libro Credit Union agreed to explore a merger, creating a larger member-owned cooperative bank.

RBI Basel III Update: India’s central bank issued final Basel III market risk capital rules for banks, with new minimum requirements set to kick in from April 2027, and barred trading-to-banking reclassifications aimed at regulatory arbitrage. Liquidity Watch (Nigeria): Nigeria’s banking system liquidity fell by ₦3.86tn after a fresh CBN OMO auction, dropping available cash from ₦5.89tn to ₦2.03tn and nudging short-term funding pressure higher. Australia Rates Signal: Big banks including CBA and ANZ now expect the RBA to lift the cash rate by 25 bps to 4.6% next week, with inflation still a key concern. Tokenized Settlement (ECB): The ECB launched Pontes to let institutions settle tokenized assets in central-bank money via Pontes connected to TARGET Services. Crypto-to-Banking Rails: Anchorage Digital picked LayerZero to enable cross-chain regulated stablecoin issuance, while Coinbase opened IPO allocations in its app for eligible US retail users. India Banking Disruption Risk: India’s Finance Ministry urged PSB/RRB staff to avoid a Sept 28–30 strike that could disrupt services during half-year bank closing.

UK Markets Watch: UK public sector net borrowing data for August lands amid “intense volatility” for gilt markets, with expectations that borrowing jumped about £15.7bn and net debt could rise toward 94.1% of GDP. Central Banks & Rates: A busy week of Fed speakers and key PMIs is set against a backdrop of hawkish policy expectations, while the IMF backs central-bank FX interventions aimed at smoothing shock-driven volatility. Banking Regulation (India): The RBI issued final Basel III market-risk capital rules for commercial banks, with implementation due from April 1, 2027, and also finalized minimum capital requirements for market risk. Payments & Wallets: Walmart’s shift to support Apple Pay and Google Pay is a clear signal that banks and payment firms must meet customers where they already pay. Crypto & Digital Finance: Bitcoin surged past $85,000 on ETF inflows and improved risk sentiment, while Saudi Arabia quietly exited China’s mBridge platform after completing a proof of concept. Banking Labor (India): India’s finance ministry urged public sector bank and RRB staff to call off a planned Sept. 28–30 strike after the government put the PLI scheme in abeyance. Corporate Finance: SoftBank is seeking over $11bn in junk bonds to fund follow-on OpenAI investment, underscoring how AI financing is increasingly debt-driven.

Banking Strike Prep (India): SBI urged customers to complete branch-dependent transactions ahead of a UFBU nationwide strike from Sept. 28–30, pointing users to ATMs, CSPs, and digital channels like YONO, mobile banking and UPI. Big Tech Meets Stablecoins: Apple and Google are hiring for stablecoin and tokenized-finance roles, signaling deeper payments and digital-asset infrastructure focus without announcing consumer stablecoin launches. Crypto Enforcement (UK): The FCA, with HMRC and the Met Police, inspected three London premises over suspected illegal P2P crypto trading and issued cease-and-desist notices. Regulators Scrutinize Trading Ties: After Jane Street’s roughly $15B July loss, the Fed and Bank of England are ramping scrutiny of how banks are tied to major non-bank trading firms. Tokenization Goes Mainstream (US): DTCC added Oasis Pro Markets to its Fund/SERV network, aiming to connect tokenized fund distribution to existing US fund plumbing. Markets & Rates (Global): Bank of Japan lifted rates to 1.25% amid cross-pressure from Japan’s growth-first politics and US pressure to support the yen. EM Flows Watch: With US yields elevated, investors are favoring local-currency EM debt over dollar bonds, though another dollar surge could reverse flows.

M&A Scrutiny: Indiabulls’ proposed ₹1,050 crore purchase of 70% of Fintech Cloud implies a ₹1,500 crore valuation, but disclosed FY2025–26 revenue/profit figures raise “what exactly are they paying for?” questions. Trade Talks: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and China’s He Lifeng meet at JPMorgan ahead of the Trump–Xi summit, with rare earths, AI governance, and the Nov. 10 trade-truce expiry in focus. Credit Pulse (Nigeria): CBN data shows private-sector credit fell from N93.74trn (Jan) to N83.43trn (July), despite recapitalisation, spotlighting tighter business lending. Bank Strike Prep (India): Finance Ministry convenes PSB/RRB/IBA/NABARD heads for contingency planning ahead of a Sept 28–30 nationwide strike. Crypto Regulation & Markets: The SEC innovation exemption could help tokenized-stock platforms (Coinbase, Robinhood, Circle), while Bitcoin holds above key levels as traders watch $83K sell pressure. Payments Infrastructure: RBI’s IDPIC rollout expands via pilots in eight banks to curb digital-payment fraud. Rates & Bonds: New Zealand bond yields hover near 5% as higher-rate expectations revive fixed-income returns.

Banking Rates & Liquidity: Nepal’s BFIs are cutting loan pricing, with average rates now as low as 5.53% for deprived-sector lending, as excess liquidity and weaker loan demand pressure banks to compete. Central Banking Moves: Uganda’s shilling slid nearly 6% since early September; the Bank of Uganda is lifting banks’ reserve requirement to 13.5% from Sept 24 to drain liquidity and curb currency pressure. China Credit Policy: China kept benchmark lending rates unchanged for the 16th straight month (1-year LPR 3.00%, 5-year 3.50%), signaling limited room for broad easing. Regional Banking Resilience: Moody’s says Islamic banks in Bahrain and the GCC have stronger credit buffers, with Bahrain’s Islamic sector holding a 69% financing share and CET1 above 22%. Banking Tech & Ops: Digital Realty’s data-centre command hubs highlight how banks and fintechs rely on always-on monitoring to prevent outages as AI demand grows. Fraud/Compliance: The SBA faced scrutiny over improper payments tied to 7(a) loan guarantee decisions, underscoring how process failures can turn into taxpayer losses. Crypto/Payments: Coinbase and Stablecore launched digital asset rails to connect to 3,000+ banks and credit unions, pushing more institutions into crypto infrastructure.